2022-04-07 22:47:12
本周专栏: 铁矿石
接近增长极限?
全球铁矿石和钢铁市场展望论坛于 3 月底在西澳的柏斯 召开。之前我们报道过一些头条事件,以下是我们更进 一步的分析和阐释这将对运费市场意味着什么。
1) 铁矿石供应展望 – 增长的量在哪儿?
不像5年或10年前,当时有很多重大的扩张项目在进行 (每年>2500吨产能)今年的论坛特别显著的特点是, 没有特意提到重大项目。新的项目仅限一小批,主要集 中在从南澳的Spencer Gulf出货地区。
BHP将用SOUTH FLANK取代其YANDI 的矿产,ROY HILL 也将申请额外的500万吨的产能。但是总的产能增长相 比于海运市场的铁矿石量非常小。BHP确实重申其之前 的产量目标是从2018年的2.75-2.8亿吨产量,在明年年 底前达到2.9亿吨,那么对于海运运输量来说未来的确 有一些涨幅。
2) 质量升级 -追求价值
无疑 在这次论坛上来自澳洲的铁矿石商们的主要话题 都是铁矿石质量是关键,这也反应了含铁高的铁矿石在 市场上更具吸引力以及价格更高,而含有不良杂质的铁 矿石价格则更低。
有一部分新的矿商非常明确的意在追求高质量产品市 场,计划生产含铁量高达70%的精矿。但是几个大的矿 商都表示出他们的关注点,RIO TINTO主要关注整体的 价值主张而不是追求量和市场份额。目前的战略是 “价值重于量”,虽然他们之前也引入过“产能飞速发 展’的概念 –能在市场价格有驱动原因时候,通过其 供应链增加额外的产能。
本届论坛上关于目前低质和高质的铁矿石价格幅度差是 铁矿石市场结构的一部分还是仅反应了铁化合物目前的 情况。目前市场普遍认为,尽管中国钢铁生产利润依然 很高,但是由于政府措施,用高炉炼钢产能增加有限, 因此高铁含量的铁矿石就会使价格差距保持很大。但是 从我们观点来看,肯定还会有周期因素在其中,价格和 利润在某个点时候会下跌,一旦如此,含铁高的铁矿石 需求压力释放,价格差距就会减少。
3)短期和季节性趋势
目前的观点是两大驱动因素来自中国 – 环保问题使得 很多钢铁厂在冬季期间关闭,目前去除了1.3亿吨钢铁 过剩产能,取得了成效。前者使得蓝天更多了,减少了 污染,而后者有了健康的钢铁市场,使得钢铁生产利润 增高。当然我们希望未来几年冬天钢铁厂还将继续关 闭,政府的政策对于钢铁产能增长有抑制作用。
似乎说限制钢铁产能有利于运费市场有点有悖常理,我 们需要中国市场有个良好的钢铁市场环境来使得运费市 场长期可持续发展。转变生产产能方式也有利于运费市 场。今年我们预计有143个小的,效率低的,使用高炉i 的钢铁企业关闭,取而代之的是62家新的效率更高但更 依赖海运进口原料的企业。
冬季生产减产对运费市场的影响更为有限 – 还可能有 一些季节性的额外因素,虽然我们也看到南中国的钢铁 产量有所增长来弥补北方减少的部分。与短期趋势更为 相关的是许多好望角型船用于铁矿石贸易来运输矿场主 已有的货而非根据需求的变化,因此流动的影响很有 限。如果铁矿石价格持续较低,海运铁矿石供应过剩, 这种情况将会改变。
4)未来需求增加
如果澳洲新的铁矿石供应量有限,那么仅仅反应了未来 5-10年需求增长有限。
BHP对于增长关注主要是中国的“”政策引起 的钢铁需求增长,亚洲的新兴国家鼓风炉产能增加,预 计每年增加量将有2000万吨。尽管具体的规划 项目还不明确,预计这些主要的受到政策影响的国家中 有30个国家,在2020年前钢铁需求将达到4.55亿吨,在 2016年的水平上涨了13%。
对于海运方面不太乐观的是: 根据中国冶金工业规划 研究院详细的阐述,中国钢铁行业应该更注重高效,质 量和技术的革新和更高价值的产品上,而不是像过去一 样一味地无限扩张产能。事实上,在中国已经过了“钢 铁”高峰后,到2030年,总的钢铁产量预计会有个稳定 的下降,到2030年产量比目前的水平预计会减少2亿吨。
令铁矿石行业和协会及中国的铁矿石航运市场更担忧是 中国钢铁生产方式的改变。随着中国经济的发展,钢铁 库存量将增加,在2030年前达到120亿吨,而废钢产量 也会增加,年产量达到2亿吨。从今年1月1日开始新的 政策要求用使用废钢的电弧高炉炼钢(EAF)来取代高 炉炼钢。
中国工业和信息化部印发的钢铁水泥玻璃行业产能置换 实施办法中鼓励电弧高炉发展,建议所有地区的铁矿石 和钢铁企业停止使用高炉炼铁而使用等量的电炉短流程 炼钢。
使用电炉和废钢炼钢是经济发展成熟的自然过程。2017 年中国电炉炼钢比例仅仅为10%,而全球平均比例为 25%,美国超过60%,欧洲为40%。亚洲的水平稍微更低 一些,南韩为30%,日本为20%。中国冶金工业规划研究 院的观点是中国的电炉炼钢比例在2030年前将达到20%30%, 当然这也要根据有持续的廉价电力供应情况而 定。
因此由于钢铁产量预期下降,1/4的产量都将转自废钢 而不是铁矿石库存,中国铁矿石海运市场长期展望来看 并不太乐观,不过对于好望角船队来说还是有足够的时 间来根据变化的环境调整平衡。
在2030年前,有608艘在2009年到2012年交付的纽卡斯 型船和好望角型船(占目前船队的45%)要被淘汰,因 此比较乐观的观点是,如果管理足够好的话,运费市场 的过度几乎不易察觉。
ENGLISH VERSION
Approaching the limits to growth?
The Global Iron Ore and Steel Forecast Conference took place in Perth, Western Australia at the end of March. We previously reported some of the headline issues, below is a deeper look into what was presented and our interpretation of what it means for freight.
1) Iron Ore Supply Outlook — where is the volume growth?
Unlike 5 or 10 years ago when there were multiple major (>25mtpa capacity) expansion projects in the pipeline, what was noticeable at this year’s conference was that there were none being flagged. New entrants and greenfield projects are limited to a handful of smaller projects, with the focus on operations shipping out of the Spencer Gulf in South Australia.
From the Pilbara BHP are due to replace their Yandi mine with South Flank and Roy Hill are applying for an additional 5mt of capacity, but total capacity growth from these, in the context of the seaborne iron ore market, is small. BHP did reiterate its previous guidance that it is aiming for 290 million tonnes of production by the end of next year, up from the current FY18 guidance of 275-280 million tonnes, so there is some small improvement in seaborne tonnes still to come.
2) Quality Upgrading — Chasing value
Undoubtedly the key theme to come from the Australian iron ore producers who spoke at the conference was that iron ore quality was the focus, reflecting the strong premium that high Fe ore is attracting in the market and the discounts that are applied for deleterious impurities.
Some of the prospective greenfield miners are clearly aiming for the high-quality end of the market with plans to produce concentrate with an Fe content of up to 70%. But even from the majors there was clear guidance as to where the focus was, with Rio Tinto being showing that their mindset was now on the overall value proposition rather than a chase for volume and market share. Their approach now is “value over volume”, though they did introduce their concept of “sprint capacity” - being able to push extra tonnes through their supply chain at time when market prices create a compelling reason to do so.
There was considerable discussion as to whether the current price spread between the low grade and high grade ores was now a structural part of the iron ore market or just reflected the current conditions in the ferrous complex. There seemed to be consensus that whilst Chinese steel production margins remain strong but blast furnace capacity growth is limited by government action then the productivity gains of high Fe ore would keep the price spread high. But in our view there is clearly a cyclical element to it - prices and margins will decline at some point and once that occurs the pressure on high Fe ore will ease and differentials will narrow.
3) Short Term & Seasonal Trends
The prevailing view was that the two major initiatives coming from China - environmentally driven closures of steel mills over winter and the removal so far of 130 million tonnes of surplus steel capacity, had been a success. With the former had come clear skies and reduced pollution, with the later has come a healthy steel market with strong production margins. It was certainly expected that winter shut downs will be repeated over the next few years and that government policy will keep pressure on capacity growth in the steel sector.
While it sounds perverse to say limiting steel production capacity is good for freight, we need a healthy steel sector in China for our market to remain sustainable in the long term and that is what has been delivered so far. There is also a benefit to freight in the changing nature of the productive capacity. This year we are expecting 143 small, inefficient steel blast furnaces to close, to be replaced with 62 modern units that are more efficient but reliant on seaborne inputs.
On the winter production cuts the impact on freight is more limited - it introduces some extra seasonality perhaps, though we also saw an increase in steel production in south China to make up for what was lost in the north. Of more relevance to short terms trends is that the major Capesize iron ore trades are dictated by the availability of cargoes from the miners, not by changes in demand, so the flow impact is limited. If there were to be a sustained period of low iron ore prices and an oversupply of seaborne iron ore, this situation would change.
4) Future Demand Growth
If there is limited new iron ore supply coming from Australia, that merely reflects what is a expected to be a period of restrained demand growth over the next 5-10 years.
BHP’s presentation focussed on the demand that will be created via China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) initiative and the growth in steel demand and blast furnace capacity throughout Emerging Asia, with 20 million tonnes per year of capacity additions expected. Whilst exact plans for OBOR projects are still vague, the forecast is that in 30 of the key countries impacted, steel demand will reach 455 million tonnes by 2020, up 13% on 2016’s level.
On a less positive note for seaborne trade, in a detailed presentation from the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (MPI) it was outlined that value in the Chinese steel industry is to come from greater efficiency, upgrades to quality and technology and higher value products, rather than the relentless expansion of capacity that has been seen in the past. Indeed, out to 2030 there is expected to be a steady decline in total steel production as China moves past “peak steel” - by 2030 production was forecast down by 200 million tonnes from current levels.
Of even greater concern for the iron ore industry, and by association the freight market shipping the iron ore to China, are the changes to Chinese steel production methods that were outlined. As China’s economy develops the stock of steel will grow, hitting 12 billion tonnes by 2030, and with that scrap steel production will increase, hitting 200 million tonnes a year. In line with this there is now policy, implemented on 1st January this year, to replace iron ore-consuming blast furnaces with scrap-consuming electric arc furnaces (EAF).
The Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel and Cement Glass Industry from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encourages the development EAF steel and proposes that all regional iron and steel enterprises exiting from blast furnace operations can be replaced with an equal volume of EAF capacity.
The move towards EAF and scrap steel is a natural progression as economies mature. In 2017 China’s EAF ratio was just 10%, compared with the world average of around 25%and more than 60% in the US and 40% in Europe. Levels in Asia are slightly lower with 30% in South Korea and 20% in Japan. The MPI’s view was that China will be hitting 20%-30% EAF production by 2030, though this is contingent on the increased supply of cheap electricity.
So with a forecast of steel production to fall, and a quarter of production to move to scrap steel rather than iron ore feedstock, the long term outlook for Chinese seaborne iron ore imports is a troubling one, though it is far enough in advance and a slow enough process of changeover that there is time for the Capesize fleet to rebalance to the changing environment.
By 2030 the 608 Newcastlemax and Capesize ships that delivered into the fleet between 2009 and 2012 (45% of the currently operating fleet) will be at the end of their trading lives, so the optimistic view is that if managed well, the transition for freight may be barely noticed anyway.